Back in December 1989 Burgess wrote an article predicting the shape of the ‘90s. He died a few short years later. Burgess was always one to astutely put his finger on social trends and understand what was really going on around him, so it’s fascinating to reread this article with the benefits of hindsight! He did not speak of the huge IT revolution, but other than that he identified many of the future issues with pinpoint precision.
Here is a link to the Observer article:
Let’s dissect this short but packed article.
Observations of the late ‘80s
“We enter the 90s sober, serious, aware of the existence of evil… a little bewildered by changes that no fiction, however fantastic, would accept”
He was probably referring to the domino effect of Gorbachev’s reforms (glasnost and perestroika) and the the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989.
The collapse of the Soviet Union brought optimism but also uncovered the full horror of the brutality under those regimes – the gulags, the secret police, the show trials and human rights abuses. Some of this was already well known of course, while some of it was newly exposed. A reminder of the magnitude of evil in the name of ideology, and a certain loss of illusions about what we had tolerated or ignored. The ‘80s in the West is remembered for its consumerism and optimism – but as the decade closed the tone shifted to apprehension as to what lay ahead. The world had fully woken up.
In the face of these grand shifts in geopolitics, Burgess felt pulled back to parochial Britain – “I see that an atavistic instinct has made me turn from Europe to our own tight little island (‘tight’ is the mot juste: Britain has become a country of drunkards)”. I had to look this up – apparently “tight” is or was British slang for “drunk”.
“I have a fair chance of sourly rejoicing in Britain’s joining the continent by dry land”
The formal project to build the Channel tunnel was agreed in 1986 and concluded in 1994.
Juvenile violence.
As well as noting man’s violent nature, Burgess also reminds us as usual of man’s “capacity to choose between good and evil”.
Looking forward
Burgess picked up six themes of the future.
1/ Liberalism vs Fundamentalist Islam
The old opposition pitched the Free World against the athiest Communist World. The new order would be “liberal and humanistic and nostalic for some kind of faith” pitted against an intolerant and militant Islam – “We are going back to the Middle Ages”
2/ Terrorism
“Terrorism will continue and the fear of it will modify police behaviour and the workings of justice for the worse”.
3/ Germany
“The reunification of Germany will take place in my lifetime, and there will be a resurgence of German patriotism…but I do not envisage the rise of a new Fuhrer”. The reunification of Germany actually took place in October 1990, a year after the fall of the Berlin wall.
4/ Uncertain future of the Eastern bloc
He noted the “cult of personality” around Gorbachov and questioned whether the movement towards freedom would really continue – “We will never be sure of the future of the Eastern bloc until a new liberal philosophy is enunciated, and not by Gorbachov alone”. The future of Europe concerned him – “I cannot yet make up my mind. If we are to regard Russia as part of Europe, how far then will Europe extend? To Vladivostok?”. Putin has shelved this question for the time being.
5/ Destruction of the environment
“The oceans will grow more filthy and the air less breathable. The problem of the planet is our true problem. The smashing of the Berlin Wall is nothing”. Climate change is not alluded to here – at the end of the ‘80s this topic was only just becoming part of the mainstream narrative.
6/ Hedonism and selfishness
Burgess feared an increase in selfishness and slackening of morality. “If there is to be a national philosophy at all, it will be one of hedonism, with a multitude of vulgar pleasures and a bewildering choice of fast foods”.